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303.399.9422

8811 East Hampden Ave.,
Suite 104 
Denver, CO 80231

  • Phill Foster and Company

    Industrial land and building experience

  • Phill Foster and Company

    Subsurface mineral rights

  • Phill Foster and Company

    Water rights uses and sand and gravel

  • Phill Foster and Company

    Over 40 years office leasing experience

  • Phill Foster and Company

    Niobrara shale oil properties

Change of Office/Mix of Real Estate Opinions

Dodd-Frank may see some changes. "If Trump is successful with deregulation, specifically around the Dodd-Frank Act, it will ease up the flow of capital available from banks, which will be good for commercial real estate," says Jilliene Helman, CEO of RealtyMogul.com, a commercial real estate online marketplace. "The Federal Reserve has already indicated they will continue to raise rates in 2017, and traders are pricing in two or three additional rate hikes. This will negatively impact commercial real estate as capitalization rates will move, but some of this has already been priced into the market."

Also, if Trump is successful in creating domestic jobs or bringing jobs that have moved to foreign markets back to the U.S., this will be good for the economy and good for commercial real estate, Helman says.

Mr. Trump promises to not only cut taxes and regulations, but also to invest in infrastructure and jobs, a potential boon for business. “Once you start creating jobs, development follows,”

If Mr. Trump dismantles the Dodd-Frank financial reforms enacted after the subprime mortgage crisis, home buyers could find it easier to get a mortgage. But a lack of oversight could have other consequences. “Maybe we’ll have another 2008,” Mr. Miller said, referring to the financial crisis. “Human beings have a tragic flaw, we tend to screw things up over time.”

Historically, real estate values have increased when interest rates are rising. Another way to put this is that real estate is negatively correlated to bond values. Between 1978 and 2014, real estate had a -0.27 correlation with investment grade bonds, according to a Pension Real Estate Association (PREA) study. In other words real estate values tend to increase when bond prices decrease (bond prices go down when interest rates go up).

So what does all of this mean for real estate values in the Trump era? If we are truly heading for a period of inflationary deficit spending, direct property investments should provide a good inflation hedge over the term of Trump’s presidency. This is particularly true for hotels and apartments, which have short leases. On the other hand, office buildings and industrial properties that are locked in to long term leases will take longer to adjust.

It appears likely the Trump administration would take action to preserve portions of the tax code that are highly advantageous to real estate developers, examples being 1031 tax-free exchanges and the carried interest exemption for investment managers. There is also talk of federal income tax cuts for all filers. Such tax policies, in addition to increased infrastructure spending (which brings with it a high potential for improvements to roads, bridges, and airports) and immigration policies (which reduce the supply of low cost labor) would likely lead to some level of inflation and higher interest rates. As a consequence, inbound investment to the US may be reduced, at least in the short-term, and population growth may be dampened, both of which would negatively affect the commercial real estate market.

"The higher demand for homes would push up house prices, and pretty soon the next generation would find themselves struggling to qualify for sufficient mortgage finance," Pointon said. "And, as we learned just a few years’ ago, loosening lending standards can lead to dangerous housing and credit bubbles, which cause real damage when they eventually pop."

Housing reform will also impact home purchase costs - Trump's effect on interest rates will likely depress housing prices in some ways, says David Reiss, professor of law at Brooklyn Law School. "That's because the higher the monthly cost of a mortgage, the lower the price that the seller can get," he notes. Reiss cites housing reform as a good example. "Housing finance reform will increase interest rates," he says. "Republicans have made it very clear that they want to reduce the role of the federal government in the housing market in order to reduce the likelihood that taxpayers will be on the hook for another bailout. If they succeed, this will likely raise interest rates because the federal government's involvement in the mortgage market tends to push interest rates down."